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conflicts, an argument that is developed in Chapter 5. In any case, civil
wars that became polarized along Cold War camps often gained inter-
national attention and, in many cases, superpower intervention.
Table 2.5 shows the effects of the Cold War on the duration of civil
wars. The results of Model 8 show that civil wars involving pro- or
anti-communist forces lasted 141 percent longer, on average, than civil
wars that were not classified as Cold War conflicts (or, equivalently, the
rate at which such wars are resolved is 59 percent lower. For details, see
the Appendix). In addition, after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the ex-
pected duration of communist civil wars dropped by 91 percent as
shown by the post-Cold War variable (reflecting a more than ten-fold
increase in the rate of resolution).
Table 2.5 Effects of the Cold War on duration of civil wars, 1945 1997a
Effect on duration of civil wars
Variables Model 8 Model 9
Cold War civil war +141%*** +72%**
Post Cold War years -91%*** -92%***
Superpower intervention  +141%***
***p
a. Country population, democracy, historical year, and battle deaths/year were included as
control variables but are not shown in this table.
50 Neverending Wars
Part of the increased duration of Cold War civil wars was due to su-
perpower intervention in these wars. As Model 9 shows, civil wars with
superpower intervention lasted 141 percent longer than wars without
superpower intervention on average. However, Cold War civil wars
were not merely longer because of superpower intervention. The effect
of the Cold War civil war variable in the table remains positive and sig-
nificant, resulting in an average increase of 72 percent in the length of
conflicts, even after taking into account the effect of superpower inter-
vention. In combination, Cold War ideologies and superpower inter-
vention resulted in wars that typically lasted over three times longer
than other wars.
Interstate Intervention
Another major influence on the length of civil wars among weak states
has been the tremendous amount of interstate intervention evident in
the post-World War II civil wars. Interstate intervention is not new
to this historical period, of course; states have intervened in the domes-
tic affairs of each other since the international system has existed
(Hoffman 1984). But the large population of weak states created after
1945 has encouraged more intervention in civil wars than in previous
historical periods. In addition, the nature of intervention has changed
since 1945. Historically, intervention tended to occur on behalf of only
one side of a civil war. During the early nineteenth century, the Great
Powers of Europe conferred and often acted jointly to squelch a civil
war. In the interventions of the post-World War II world, however, it
has been common for both the state and the opposition group to bene-
fit from international support and intervention, creating a civil war fu-
eled by extra-national resources.
Furthermore, many more states intervened in the affairs of their fel-
low states in the contemporary period than in the past. Historically, the
Great Powers of Europe would intervene in conflicts of interest to
them, as would a regional power such as the United States in its  back-
yard of Central America. Less militarily powerful states would rarely
intervene in foreign civil wars. By the late twentieth century, however,
this had changed. In addition to the superpowers, former colonial pow-
ers, regional powers, and neighboring states increasingly began to join
in the civil wars of other states.
World Patterns in Civil War Duration 51
Table 2.6 shows the effects of intervention on the length of civil
wars. This analysis, like the previous one, examines the duration of civil
wars. The results presented in Model 10 suggest that civil wars with in-
terstate intervention are dramatically longer than civil wars in which
intervention did not occur. On average, civil wars with interstate inter-
vention, broadly defined, are 300 percent longer than wars without in-
tervention. This effect is extremely large, suggesting that intervention
is one of the biggest factors in lengthening contemporary civil wars.
The results of Model 11 separate out the impact of intervention, gen-
erally, from those cases that experience intervention on behalf of both
sides of a civil war. In this model, the presence of any third-party inter-
vener increases war duration by 156 percent, and the presence of two-
sided intervention lengthens wars by an additional 92 percent.
In addition, the results presented in Model 12 suggest that the ef-
fects of interstate intervention are not simply due to the superpowers.
On the one hand, it is the case that civil wars that involve superpower
intervention tend to last 72 percent longer than civil wars without it.
Conflicts in states such as Angola, for instance, which receive interven-
tion on both sides and by the superpowers (actually, in the case of An-
gola, superpowers intervened on both sides) will be 538 percent longer
on average than a civil war without any intervention. On the other
hand, the effects of any intervention, and of two-sided intervention, are
still significant when the superpower variable is included in the model,
indicating that superpower intervention is not the entire story. Inter-
ventions by former colonial powers, regional powers, and neighboring
states also play a substantial role in lengthening civil wars.
Table 2.6 Effects of interstate intervention on duration of civil wars,
1945 1997a
Effect on duration of civil wars
Variables Model 10 Model 11 Model 12
Intervention +300%*** +156%*** +92%**
Intervention on both sides  +92%** +92%**
Superpower intervention   +72%**
***p
a. Country population, democracy, historical year, and battle deaths/year were included as
control variables but are not shown in this table.
52 Neverending Wars
Conclusion
Statistical results strongly support the arguments developed in Chapter
1. The world polity set the stage for a greater number of civil wars
in the post-1945 era. Changes that resulted in decolonization, the de-
cline of interstate warfare, and international norms against secession
produced a world in which weak states proliferated and civil wars were
more common. A closer examination of nation-states shows that weak
states are the ones that experience the majority of those new civil [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]